Goldman Sachs has significantly upgraded its projections for China's robotaxi market, signaling a belief that the commercialization of autonomous driving is progressing at a much faster pace than previously anticipated. This revised outlook indicates a strong future for self-driving services in the region, with substantial growth expected over the next decade.

Goldman Sachs' Upbeat Forecast for China's Autonomous Ride-Sharing Sector

In a detailed report released on April 18, 2026, analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by Allen Chang, substantially increased their estimates for China's robotaxi fleet. The firm now foresees the fleet expanding from 5,000 vehicles in 2025 to an impressive 14,000 by the close of 2026. Looking further ahead, the projection for 2035 stands at 3.1 million units, which would account for a remarkable 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles across the nation.

This upward revision, affecting forecasts for the entire 2025 to 2035 period by 7% to 25%, is attributed to two primary factors. Firstly, the deployment of robotaxis has been smoother than initially expected. Secondly, operators in the sector have provided more definitive guidance regarding their expansion targets for 2026, instilling greater confidence in the market's trajectory. Chang emphasized that commercialization is accelerating, with several key players already achieving city-level break-even points, demonstrating the economic viability of these services in specific urban environments.

The concept of city-level break-even is particularly crucial, addressing long-standing questions about the profitability of robotaxi businesses at scale. Goldman Sachs' analysis suggests that this hurdle is being overcome, with expectations for Tier-1 Chinese cities to reach break-even by 2026, based on an average of 21 trips per day, a fare of $2.8, and a vehicle cost of $21,000. This milestone signals a shift from purely technological development to practical, revenue-generating operations.

Beyond market size updates, the report also identified two companies as compelling investment opportunities. WeRide, a leading autonomous driving technology company, received a 'Buy' rating with a price target of HK$54.23. Goldman Sachs anticipates an 80% compound annual growth rate for WeRide's revenues from 2025 to 2030, with its global fleet projected to surge from 2,800 vehicles in 2026 to 415,000 by 2032. WeRide has already launched public robotaxi services in Dubai and Riyadh, with plans for fully driverless passenger services in Abu Dhabi by the first half of 2026. The company's strategic move towards an asset-light model, minimizing vehicle spending on its balance sheet, is expected to further accelerate its deployment capabilities.

Pony.ai was highlighted as the second company poised to benefit significantly from the next phase of China's robotaxi expansion. The report also extended its forecasts to include overseas expansion, predicting that by 2026, international fleets will constitute 29% of WeRide's global fleet, 9% of Pony.ai's, and 7% of Baidu's. These percentages are expected to rise substantially by 2035, underscoring the growing importance of international markets as a key growth driver. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs noted the potential of the robotruck segment to become a significant long-term revenue contributor for autonomous vehicle companies, expanding revenue streams beyond passenger services.

This revised outlook from Goldman Sachs transforms the narrative around China's autonomous driving sector. It is no longer viewed solely as a distant technological aspiration but rather as a near-term commercial reality, complete with specific fleet targets, profitability timelines, and actionable stock recommendations. China's rapid advancements in regulatory support, infrastructure development, and consumer adoption have positioned it ahead of many other markets, an advantage now visibly translating into economic benefits. The critical question for investors remains whether the highlighted operators can sustain their rapid rollout and convert city-level break-even into robust company-wide profitability, making the market's reaction to these forecasts a key indicator of future trends.

This comprehensive update from Goldman Sachs serves as a powerful indicator of the transformative potential within China's autonomous driving landscape. It underscores the critical shift from experimental phases to a tangible commercial ecosystem, driven by technological maturity and favorable market conditions. For the investment community, the report provides a clearer lens through which to evaluate opportunities in this rapidly evolving sector. It suggests that while the journey to widespread autonomous vehicle adoption still presents challenges, the early signs of profitability and expansive growth in key markets like China offer compelling reasons for optimism. As these companies continue to innovate and expand globally, their ability to meet aggressive deployment targets and achieve sustainable profitability will be the ultimate determinant of their long-term success and impact on the future of transportation.